s10下注

s10下注

近期投资者关注热点50问(一)

    weilejinyibuzengqiangguangdatouzizheduizibenshichanggaigefazhanderenshiheduishichangguanzhuwentidezhengquelijie,tigaoxingyefuwushuipinghetouzizhedeziwobaohunengli,peiyujiankangdeshichangshengtaihetouziwenhua,womenzaiqianqizhengjianhuilingdaojianghuahetouzizhebaohujuduitouzizhedafudejichushang,huibianzhenglile《jinqitouzizheguanzhuredian50wen》,gongdajiacankao。

1、zibenshichangruhezaituidongzhongguozhuanbianjingjifazhanfangshiguochengzhongfahuizuoyong,huiyounaxiejiyuhetiaozhan?

s10下注    da:zibenshichangzuoweiyouhuaziyuanpeizhidezhongyaopingtai,duiyuyindaoshehuichuxuzhuanhuaweiyouxiaotouzi、cujinchanyejiegoudiaozhengshengjijuyoubuketidaidezuoyong。fadaguojiadejingyanbiaoming,zibenshichangzaituidongguojiajingjizhuanxinghezhanlvexingxinxingchanyefazhanguochengzhong,qizhehenguanjiandezuoyong。guoqu30nianquanqiuzuizhongyaodesidaxinxingchanye——jisuanji、tongxun、hulianwangheshengwuzhiyao,doushitongguozibenshichangfaxianhetuidongchengzhangqilaide,weilaizhongguojingjizhuanxingchenggongxuyaoyouyigeqiangdazibenshichangdezhichenghetuidong。

    jiakuaizhuanbianjingjifazhanfangshideyaoqiuyeshiwoguozibenshichangmianlinzheqiansuoweiyoudejiyuhetiaozhan。

s10下注    woguojingjigongyehua、chengzhenhua、xinxihuaheshichanghuadouchuyukuaisutuijinshiqi。zheijiweizibenshichangfazhandiandinglejianshijichu,yeduizhengquanqihuoyetichulegenggaoyaoqiu。woguozibenshichangfeichangnianqing,cunzaizhexuduobuchengshudedifang,tongshiyechongmanwangshengshengji,yongyouzhezuiguangkuodeqianjing。

    tongshi,zhongguodegushizaifanyingshitijingjifangmianqueshicunzaixuduotuojiexianxiang,danshicongzhongzhangqiguochenglaikan,erzhedezoushijibenyizhi,fouzebunengjieshiweishenmewomenzai20nianshijianli,nenggoujianliqiguimominglieshijieqianmaodegupiao、zhaiquanheqihuoshichang。

s10下注    zuoweiyigehoufadexinxingshichangjingjiti,zhongguodezibenshichangbugouwanshan。zuituchudebiaoxianyoulianggefangmian:yishishichangbodongjulie,guoqujinianyouweituchu,yishangzhengzhishunianmoshoupanjiaweili,2006nianshangzhang130%,2007nianshangzhang97%,2008nianxiadie65%,2009nianfandanyue80%,zuijinliangnianshichangyoumingxianxiadie;ershishichangjiegoubunengtixianyouzhiyoujia,xuduoshihouqiaqiaxiangfan,zheiyiweizheziyuanpeizhixiaolvbeiyanzhongsunhai,guojia、shehuihetouzizheliyidoushoudaobuliyingxiang。zheixiewentijiangtongguozibenshichangtizhidejinyibugaigequjiejue,shidezibenshichangyushitijingjidehudonggengweijiankangshunchang。

2、ruhekandaizhengfudiaodijingjizengzhangdemubiaozhizhi7%?

s10下注    da:“shierwu”guihuaquedingnianjunzengsu7%,jiangdilezhengceyuqimubiao,weideshinenggoutongchoujiangugengduofangmian。guojishangjuedaduoshujingjixuejiadoubuhuihuaiyi,zhongguorengjiangshizuijufazhanqianlidejingjitizhiyi。

s10下注    guoqusanshiduonian,woguojingjibaochilegaosuzengzhang,dansudubudengyuyiqie,jiegou、xiaoyi、huanbao、anquanyetongyangzhongyao。congquanjulaikan,woguocunzaijiakuaichanyeshengji、zhuanbianfazhanfangshidepoqiexuyao。jingjishidujiansu,shiguanchekexuefazhanguan、shishihongguandiaokongdejieguo,youliyuchixujiankangfazhan。

3、yourenshuozhongguojingjifazhanduiwaiyicundupiangao,waixiangxingjingjitishoudaowaiweishichangxuqiuyingxiangda,ruhekandaizheigewenti?

s10下注    da:yiguojingjideduiwaiyicundutongchangyongjinchukoumaoyizonge/gdphejingchangmaoyichae/gdplaihengliang,2011nianjinchukoumaoyizonge/gdp(an12geyuejunhuilvjisuan)wei50%,jingchangxiangmuchae/gdpwei2.8%,fenbiebi2006nian65%he2007nian10.1%fengzhiyousuoxiajiang。huilvhegdphesuanfangmiandechayidaozhilesuoweideduiwaiyicundushuzhijiaogao,da50%yishang,shijishangzhongguobuhuibimeiguoheribengengyilaiwaibujingji。

    zongtilaikan,woguojingjishidianxingdedaguojingji,youzhejudadeneixushichang,guojihuanjingdeyingxiangqishiburuxiangxiangdeneimeda。jinguandangqianguojijingjixingshifuzaduobian,shideguoneihenduoshencengciwentihemaoduntuxianchulai,dandoukeyitongguofazhanlaizhubujiejue。

4、ruhezhengquekandaishangzhengzhishu“shinianguzhiguiling”deshuofa?

    da:2011niandishangzhengzongzhishuzhiqueshiheshinianqianyiyangle,dazhizai2200dianzuoyou,danshizheibuyiweizhetouzizheshinianwushouyi。liyouzaiyu:

s10下注    diyi,guzhishishidianshuyejicunliang,shouyishiqujianshuyejiliuliang,bujukebixing。shangzhengzongzhicong1991nianchuangliyilai,dafubodong,ruguoxuanzezaizuigaodian,jiuzengzhangle61.2bei,zheibingbuyiweizheduiyingshiduanlimailegupiaoderenshouyidadaoneimeduobei。

s10下注    dier,shangzhengzhishudechengfenhequanzhongqijianyouhendadiaozheng。rucaiyongjueduikebikoujingjisuan,guoqushinianguzhileijizhangfuwei28%,nianjunzhangfuwei2.5%;jiashangfenhongdengyinsu,zhishutouzishouyilvwei40%,nianhuatouzishouyilvwei3.4%。

    disan,youyuzhishudebukebixing,xiangtongzhishushuipingfanyingdeshangshigongsiguzhishuipingwanquanbutong。2001nian6yuepingjunshiyinglvjiejin60bei,er2011nian12yuezhiyouyue13bei。zhiyuxianjinfenhongshouyi,neijiugengwufaxiangbi,xianzaidezongliangbishinianqianzengjia12bei。

5、woguozhengquanshichangjinxieniandegaigefazhanchengjijuda,guojishangdoudedaolepubianrenke,danshiguoneitouzizhequemeiyoudedaohenmanyidehuibao,wentidegenbenxingyuanyinhezai?

s10下注    da:woguogushijinjiniandebodongfuduqueshihenda,dazhangzhihouyoudaluo,jiuzuijinliangnianlaikan,youyuchixuxiadie,touzizhekuisunmianjiaoda,tebieshizhongxiaotouzizhepubianmeiyouzhuanqian。zaochengzheizhongjumiandeyuanyinhenfuza,zuigenbenxingdeyuanyinshidangqianwoguodezibenshichangjiegouhaibugouheli,youhuaziyuanpeizhidegongnengmeiyouchongfenfahui,shichangyueshujizhibuqiang,shichangyunxingdetizhihejizhihaicunzaibushaowenti。biru,muqianshichanggefangmiqieguanzhudefaxingtizhigaige、shangshigongsifenhonghetuishizhidudewanshan,yijijianlitouzizheshidangxingzhidudengdoufeichangguanjian。shichangcunzaide“xingure”、xingufaxing“sangao”、“echaoxiaopangu”dengxianxiangdouyushangshuzhiduanpaihejianguancaozuofangmiandewentiyouguan,zheixiewentidecunzaijidadisunhaileguangdatouzizhedeliyi。duici,jianguanbumengaoduzhongshi,zhengzaijijiyanjiujiejuebanfa。

s10下注6、zhongguozuoweiyigegaochuxulvguojia,weishenmeqiyejuederongzinan,juminyoujuedetouzijihuishaoni?

s10下注    da:zuoweigaochuxulvguojia,woguozongtishangbingbucunzaizijinduanque,dancunzaiyanzhongdejiegoubupipei、bushiyingdexianxiang。

yifangmian,jumin、jigouheqiyedoujuedeqianquemanyidejinrongtouziqudao,yinxingcunkuanchaoguo80wanyiyuan,henshaoyounenggoupaoyingtongzhangdelicaichanpin。

s10下注    lingyifangmian,xuduoyouguangkuoshichangqianjingdeyanfaxiangmu、chuangxinxingqiyehechuangyezhegerendebudaojishichongzudezijinzhichi,zhongxiaoqiyerongzikunnan,daxingjiyougongsigupiaojiagebipingjunshuipingdileyue40%。

s10下注    zheishuoming,muqianderongzijiegoubugoupingheng,zibenshichangjizhihaihenbujianquan,zijinxuqiufanghegongjifanghaimeiyouzhaodaoyouxiaodeduijiejizhihequdao,zheiyeshixiayibuzibenshichanggaigeyaozhubujiejuedewenti。

s10下注7、zhongguojinrongtixijiegoushihengzhuyaobiaoxianzainaxiefangmian?zhijierongzineibujiegoushihengbiaoxianzainaxiefangmian?jinrongtixijiegoushihengyouheweihai?

    da:zhongguojinrongtixijiegoudeshihengzhuyaobiaoxianzaisanfangmian:zhijierongzibiliyuandiyujianjierongzi,jinrongjigouzichanguimoyinxingyewei92%,baoxianyehezhengquanjijinyezhizhan8%zuoyou,jinrongfengxianguodujizhongyuyinxingtixi;zhijierongzizhongqiyexinyongzhaiquanshichangfazhanyuanzhihouyugupiaoshichangfazhan,weiduiqiyexingchengyusuanyingyueshu;gupiaoshichangyijishichangguzhigaoyuerjishichang,lanchouguguzhiyuandiyujichagu,“youzhibuyoujia”。shangshuqingkuangyizhiweidedaoxianzhugaiguan,zhiyuelejinrongtixihuajiejinrongfengxianhetigaozijinpeizhixiaolvgongnengdefahui。

    jiuzhijierongzizisheneryan,jiegouyehenbuheli。gupiaozhaiquanbilishidiao,gongsileixinyongzhaideyuebudaogupiaoshizhidesifenzhiyi。zhaiquanshichangrengyiguozhai、jinrongzhaidenglilvchanpinweizhu,gongsileixinyongzhaiquanzhanquanbuzhaiquancunliangdewufenzhiyi。zaigongsileixinyongzhaiquanzhong,jiaoyisuoshichangyanzhongzhihou,yinxingjianshichangtuoguanguimozhanbiwei97%,lianggeshichangshangweiwanquanshixianhulianhutong。

    jinrongjiegoushihengdeweihaizhuyaotixianzai:guoduyilaixindaidejinrongtixicunzaineibucuiruoxing,yidinghuanjingxiahuixingchengxitongxingfengxian;duishitijingjidejinrongfuwubiranbuzu,dui“sannong”、kejichuangxinxingqiye、wenhuachuangyiqiyedejinrongfuwuyuanyuanbuzu,minjianzijinduotouzinanerzhongxiaoqiyeduorongzinandemaodunfeichangtuchu,zheicongyigecemianshuomingjingjishenghuozhongcunzaibijiaoyanzhongdejinrongyayixianxiang。

    genjushijiejingjiluntan2011—2012niandequanqiujingzhenglibaogao,zhongguodezonghejingzhenglipaimingdi26wei,jinrongshichangfazhanshuipingpaimingdi48wei,jinrongfuwubianlichengdujudi60wei。

    jinrongtixidejiegoushihengshiqianzaidefengxianyinsu,yeshiwoguojinrongshichangbuchengshudebiaoxian,zaochengleziyuanpeizhidixiao,zhiyuelejinrongtixidegongnengfahui,fangaileshichangdewenjianyunxing,yingdangyinqishehuigefangdezhongshi。

8、zhijierongziruhezhichishitijingjifazhandexuyao?

    da:zhijierongzishiyigupiaohezhaiquanweizhuyaojinronggongjudeyizhongrongzijizhi。shitijingjishijichu,shigenben,“baiyexing,jinrongxing;baiyewen,jinrongwen”。tongshi,zibenshichangzuoweiyouhuaziyuanpeizhidezhongyaopingtai,duiyuyindaoshehuichuxuzhuanhuaweiyouxiaotouzi、cujinchanyejiegoudiaozhengshengjijuyoubuketidaidezuoyong。

    lijing20duonianfengyu,woguoyijianliqiyigeshizhipaimingquanqiudisandegupiaoshichang,yigeyuejushijiediwudezhaiquanshichang,haiyouyigejiaoyiliangminglieqianmaodeqihuoshichang。zhijierongzizhichishitijingjidenenglibuduanzengqiang,youlituidongzhefazhanfangshizhuanbianhechuangxinxingguojiajianshe。

s10下注    danshiwoguozhijierongzirengyanzhongzhihouyushitijingjifazhandexuyao。jianjierongzizhanbihaishitaigao,yinxingzaiquanbujinrongjigoudezichanzhanbichaoguole90%,jizhongleguoduofengxianyuyinxing。henduoqiye,tebieshichuangxinchuangyexingqiye,zaoqitiaojianhennancongyinxinghuodezijinzhichi。yinci,xuyaobuduantigaozhijierongzideguimohebizhong,jiakuaiduocengcizibenshichangtixijianshe,weibutongguimo、butongleixing、butongchengzhangjieduandeqiyetigongchayihuajinrongfuwu。guowuyuanbujiuqianzuochujueding,yaozhichixiaoweiqiyeshangshirongzi,chuangyeban、changwaishichanghesimuzhaiquandouxuyaojiakuaibufa。

9、zhongguogushiruhepeiyuhexiyinyixieyoujiaohaochengzhangqianjingdeqiye?

    da:zibenshichangyinqifengxiangongdan、liyigongxiangdetedian,bijiaorongyizuzhidongyuanziyuancongshichuangxinchuangyehuodong,tianranjuyoutuidonggaokejihewenhuachuangyichanyefazhandeyoushi。fadaguojiadejingyanbiaoming,zibenshichangzaituidongguojiajingjizhuanxinghezhanlvexingxinxingchanyefazhanguochengzhong,qizhehenguanjiandezuoyong。

s10下注    guoqu30nianquanqiuzuizhongyaodesidaxinxingchanye——jisuanji、tongxun、hulianwangheshengwuzhiyao,doushitongguozibenshichangfaxianhetuidongchengzhangqilaide。meiguozibenshichangyugaokejidejinmijiehe,zhichengleqikejichixulingxian。guojishangzhuduoyoushizhishirenwei,ouzhougaokejichanyeluohouyumeiguo,bingfeiyouyuouzhoukejifamingdeluohou,ershiyouyufengxiantouzihezibenshichangdeluohou。

s10下注    zaixiayibuduocengcishichangtixijianshezhong,changwaishichang、jutaijiaoyi、simuguquandengshichangdejiagousheji,yaozhongdiankaolvzhishihejishuchuangxinxingqiye、xiandainongyeqiye、xiaoxingweixingqiyedetezheng,zuochuyouzhenduixingdezhiduanpai,qieshizengqiangwoguozibenshichangdedanxinghebaorongnengli,shibutongtediandechuangxinxingqiyedounengdedaozibenshichangdezhichi,yigenghaodituidongkejiqianlizhuanhuaweixianshishengchanli。zheishizhongguoweilaibaituo“zhongdengshouruxianjing”deguanjian。

10、weilaiyiduanshiqili,zhengjianhuiyounaxiegongzuozhongdian?

    da:zhengjianhuimingquelesanxianggongzuozhongdian:

    diyi,gaishanshichanggongpingjingzhengzhixu,baohutouzizhehefaquanyi。jianligongpingjingzhengdeshichangzhixu、wanshanxiangguanfalvfagui、tigaoshichangchengxinshuiping、jianjuedajineimujiaoyi,danghaotouzizhehefaquanyideshouhuren。

    dier,tishengfuwushitijingji,tebieshiqiboruohuanjiedenengli。shitijingjishijichu,zibenshichangzuoweiyouhuaziyuanpeizhidezhongyaopingtai,xuyaobuduantigaozhijierongzideguimohebizhong,jiakuaiduocengcizibenshichangtixijianshe,yindaoshehuichuxuzhuanhuaweiyouxiaotouzi,cujinchanyejiegoudiaozhengshengji。

    disan,zhichikejichuangxinhewenhuajinbu。zaiduocengcishichangtixijianshezhong,changwaishichang、jutaijiaoyi、simuguquandengshichangdejiagousheji,yaozhongdiankaolvzhishihejishuchuangxinxingqiye、xiandainongyeqiye、xiaoxingweixingqiyedetezheng,zuochuyouzhenduixingdezhiduanpai,shibutongtediandechuangxinxingqiyedounengdedaozibenshichangdezhichi,yigenghaodituidongkejiqianlizhuanhuaweixianshishengchanli。

    shangshujigefangmianzaigenbenshangshiyizhide,yinweitouziherongzi、fuwuhehuibao、fengxianheshouyishiwufafengedezhengti。

s10下注11、zaijiakuaizibenshichangchengxinjianshefangmianyounaxiedasuanhegongzuobushu?

    da:zaijianguangongzuozhong,chengxinhechengjiezheilianggecidouhenguanjian。chengxinliangzi,chengshizhongxin,youchengcaiyouxin;chengjieliangzi,jieshizhongxin,weilejiecaiyaocheng。suoyiqunianniandiyilai,zhengjianhuiyijingxiangshehuigongbule30duoqizhengquanqihuoweifaanjian,shoudaolehenhaodexiaoguo。tongshi,zhengjianhuinizhiding《zhengquanqihuoshichangchengxinjianduguanlizanxingbanfa》,jiaqiangduishichangzhutijiqixingweidechengxinjianduyueshu,muqiangai《banfa(zhengqiuyijiangao)》zhengzaixiangshehuigongkaizhengqiuyijian。

    jinhou,duineimujiaoyi、shichangcaozong、qizhashangshi、xujiapiludengweifaweiguixingwei,zhengjianhuiyiranyaojiadadajilidu,faxianwentiyaogengkuaichuli,sihaoyebunengshouruan。lingyifangmian,zhengjianhuiyetichu,yaotigaobanandefujiazhi。jiushishuo,chengfabingbushimude,guanjianshiyaotongguoanjiandechachu,fahuijingshizuoyong。

s10下注    neimujiaoyishigeguoshichangjianguanzhongmianlindegongxingnanti。chabanneimujiaoyianjian,shejidezhutihezhanghushuliangduo、fenbuguang,youqishizhengmingweifafanzuizhezhixi、chuandineimuxinxidenanduhenda,chazhengyaohaofeidaliangderenliheshijian。congshehuiguanniankan,henduorenhairenweineimujiaoyibushifanzui,zheizaiqitaguojiayeyiyang,biruriben,25nianqiancaibaneimujiaoyidingweifanzui,renmendejingtixingshizhubutigaode。ciwai,zibenshichangshiquanguoxingdetongyishichang,ershangshigongsifensanyugedi,zaichachuweifaweiguixingweidexianjieshangyecunzaibushaokunnan,chudifangbaohuzhuyiyinsuwai,yecunzaizhifajigouqueshaozhuanyerenyuandewenti。

    zhengjianhuijiangchixubaochigaoyataishi,jianchidafangjiehe,chongfenfahuiyiyoudezonghefangkongtixidezuoyong。ciwai,youxiezhiduanpaiyekenengxuyaojiejianguowaideyixieyouxiaozuofa。biru,zaiyixieguojia,hejiezhiduzaineimujiaoyichachuguochengzhongfahuilezhongyaozuoyong,beidiaochazhejieshoujianguanbumendezhixingcuoshi,danjibuchengrenyebufanboxiangguanzhikong。zheiyangjinengtigaojianguanshixiao,shishousunhaideqitatouzizhexiangduixunsudihuodepeichang,yenengchanshengzugoudechengjiexiaoying。

12、2012nianzhengquanqihuoshichangfazhandezhuyaomubiaoherenwushishenme?

s10下注    da:“shierwu”guihuagangyaohequanguojinronggongzuohuiyi,yijingweizhengquanqihuoshichangdefazhanquedinglemingquedemubiaoherenwu。fazhanduocengcizibenshichang、peiyuzhuanyehuadetouzijigouhezhongjiezuzhi、kuodaduogelingyudeduiwaikaifangdoufeichangzhongyao。2012nianyaoquxiaoyue40%dexingzhengshenpixiangmu,youdehuixiafanghehebing。zuipoqiederenwushishenhuafaxingtizhigaige,wanshanfaxing、tuishihefenhongzhidu。

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